Bayesian Persuasion in Sequential Trials: Assumptions and induced strategies

This section explores the sender’s optimal signaling strategy in two-phase trials with general binary-outcome experiments. Focusing on phase-I parameters and induced strategies in phase II, we outline key assumptions that guide the sender’s decision-making process.


This content originally appeared on HackerNoon and was authored by Bayesian Inference

:::info Authors:

(1) Shih-Tang Su, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (shihtang@umich.edu);

(2) Vijay G. Subramanian, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and (vgsubram@umich.edu);

(3) Grant Schoenebeck, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (schoeneb@umich.edu).

:::

Abstract and 1. Introduction

2. Problem Formulation

2.1 Model of Binary-Outcome Experiments in Two-Phase Trials

3 Binary-outcome Experiments in Two-phase Trials and 3.1 Experiments with screenings

3.2 Assumptions and induced strategies

3.3 Constraints given by phase-II experiments

3.4 Persuasion ratio and the optimal signaling structure

3.5 Comparison with classical Bayesian persuasion strategies

4 Binary-outcome Experiments in Multi-phase trials and 4.1 Model of binary-outcome experiments in multi-phase trials

4.2 Determined versus sender-designed experiments

4.3 Multi-phase model and classical Bayesian persuasion and References

3.2 Assumptions and induced strategies

Next we detail the optimal signaling strategy in our two-phase trial setting with general binary-outcome experiments. To aid in the presentation and to avoid repetition, we make two assumptions without loss of generality and introduce several explanatory concepts before the analysis.

\ Lemma 2. We can make the following two assumptions WLOG.

\

\ The sender’s strategy consists of the following: choice of phase-I experiment parameters (p1, p2) and the persuasion strategies in phase-II for each outcome of the phase-I experiment. To understand better the choices available to the sender and her reasoning in determining her best strategy, we will study the possible persuasion strategies in phase-II; these will be called induced strategies to distinguish them from the entire strategy. Given the assumptions above on phase-II experiments, it’ll turn out we can directly rule out one class of induced strategies from the sender’s consideration. The other set of induced strategies will need careful assessment that we present next.

\

\

\

:::info This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license.

:::


[3] In terms of the Blackwell informativeness from [6].


This content originally appeared on HackerNoon and was authored by Bayesian Inference


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